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California Incumbents and Redistricting
Redistricting in California is unpredictable, but we can get a slight idea about what might happened just by looking at population numbers and at how a fair district can be most logically drawn. I've...
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Illinois: 13-5
My gerrymander is effective, yet not too greedy. I kept all three African-American districts over 50% and created a new Hispanic district that is majority overall, plurality by VAP. IL 1: Bobby Rush...
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California: 40-13 map
*All partisan numbers are estimates, so accuracy is hit or miss. If don't know what a color is, just ask and I'll tell you what district it is. Yes, I said 40-13, that is without any manipulation and...
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Oh, Carolina: 7-6 GOP map of North Carolina *UPDATED*
I drew this map before partisan data was available by just guessing at the percentages. All I had to do was open it up and the data was there, so simple. My take on this is a lot different from others...
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Preliminary draft maps for California
http://wedrawthelines.ca.gov/... There are some maps available right now, even though the draft isn't due for a week. Uploaded with ImageShack.us There are quite few predictable moves by the...
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Egregious, impossible Dem gerrymander of Tennessee
This impossible gerrymander is has two solid Dem seats, but creates opportunities for the right Democrats elsewhere. Since partisan data is available, I thought was a fun hypothetical to do. TN-1:...
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Maryland: 8-0 Dem
I'm skeptical that Maryland Democrats will go for 8-0, but if they do, this is the way to go. MD-1: Andy Harris 50% Obama, 47% McCain. Avg. 52% Dem, 47% Rep. Drops some of the heavily GOP Eastern...
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Utah Senate 2012: Crunching the numbers
Yet another poll has showed Representative Jim Matheson competitive in the Utah Senate race, particularly against Representative Jason Chaffetz, who is set to take on Senator Orrin Hatch in the...
View ArticleThe Hare that tricked the Bear: My take on the debt deal
I'm reminded of an old children's book that was a favorite of mine, called “Tops and Bottoms”. In that book, the rich and lazy bear wants the hare to do all the heavy lifting in exchange for all of...
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California open primary preview: CA-24 and CA-26
I picked these two races to profile for two reasons. One, I'm from the Central Coast and I have become pretty well versed in the political terrain here. Two, it's very seldom that we see two...
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California open primary preview: CA-35 and CA-44
First up is CA-35, which now looks as if it could have three Democrats vying to get to the top two. Joe Baca chose the safer option and is now up against Gloria Negrete-McLeod and possibly Norma...
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Deep In The Heart of Texas: Fair map of the Lone Star State
Texas takes a couple of hours to draw and another hour or so to fill in precinct you may have missed. This is my version of a court drawn map. This is my first try at Texas. Texas' numbering is too...
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Ohio fair map: 5-5-6
This is a good example of what a court might draw and why Democrats (mainly the Legislative Black Caucus) should proceed with the referendum and maneuver for a court map. OH-1: Steve Chabot (Blue) 56%...
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Puerto Rico: A congressional map
Seeing as Puerto Rico has it's own political parties, both of which have members that affiliate with the Democratic Party. Most politicians that affiliate with the Republican Party are members of the...
View ArticleCA-26: Analysis and benchmarks
I did any analysis of the jungle primary before, now I'm analyzing the general election and some of the previous history of the seat. Adding a link to the map http://www.mpimaps.com/... Ventura County...
View ArticleCA-26 Candidate Forum Review
The final candidate forum for CA-26 was last night and every candidate really treated the forum as one of the final appeals to voters before the primary. It was the first time I had ever attended a...
View ArticleCalifornia Congressional benchmarks
As turnout distribution goes, I've used a hybrid of 2004 and 2008 numbers, as we can't be sure how turnout will be. All of these benchmarks are formulated on the narrowest path to a win, some...
View ArticleReally, Paul?
Paul Ryan's fiscal discipline is greatly exaggerated, in reality, he was one of the architects of the current deficit. I remember very clearly that he was supportive of very expensive measures that...
View ArticleCA-26: Analysis and numbers
With less than two months left in the campaign, it's crunch time. Brownley's latest ad draws clear contrasts between her and Strickland on women's issues, as do mailers. Mailers worked very...
View ArticleCoast and Desert: Analysis and benchmark double feature for CA-24 and CA-36
I decided to do a double feature for these diaries, since the election is close and I wanted to offer my analysis on both of these seats.CA-24 reverted to a form similar to the 1992-2002 configuration...
View ArticleShould a gun be easier to purchase than cold medicine?
Whenever I buy allergy or cold medicine in the pharmacy or the grocery store, I have to show ID and at the pharmacy, I have to give my signature, so that how much cold medicine I am purchasing can be...
View ArticleImmigration Reform: The electoral impact
Welcome to Daily Kos Elections: Policy. This group was start to create an environment for the discussion of the electoral ramifications of policy and to do so in detail. As new policies will be pursued...
View ArticleCalifornia Presidential numbers by State Senate and Assembly District
The senate district numbering scheme is quite confusing, since some seats have shifted around and technically have no occupant going into the 2014 cycle, such as SD-28. I've arranged the list by how it...
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Unicameral House of Representatives: Mountain West
The concept of unicameral Congress is an interesting one, with just one house, it would remove some of the gridlock that occurs in the legislative branch. Reynolds vs. Sims only applies at the state...
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California AD-44 benchmarks
AD-44 is one of only three Obama districts held by Republicans in the California Assembly and the second most Democratic out of those three (AD-40 is the most Democratic, at 53% Obama). It includes...
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Chaise Rasheed for Thousand Oaks Council
Local elections often have low turnout, despite the fact that local government holds great responsibilities that effect every day life. While federal elections are important, who we elect as President...
View ArticleGOP Majority on Ventura County Board of Supervisors repeals campaign finance...
Ventura County once had one of the most strict campaign finance ordinances for county level races ($750), but in March the new Republican majority threw out the 20 year ordinance and allow for the...
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